How to Do an SEO Projection: A Simple, Step-by-Step Guide

If you’ve ever tried to pitch SEO to a client or your boss, you’ve probably heard this question:
“How do we know this will work?”

It’s a valid question. SEO takes time. It’s not like paid ads where you can start seeing results overnight. With SEO, you’re playing a long-term game. But just because SEO is a slow process doesn’t mean it’s unpredictable. That’s where SEO projections come in.

SEO projections allow you to estimate how much traffic, leads, or revenue you can generate from your SEO efforts over a specific timeframe. And while they’re never 100% accurate, they help set realistic expectations, convince stakeholders, and give you a roadmap for success.

In this guide, we’ll break down everything you need to know about SEO projections. We’ll cover what they are, why they matter, and how to create one step by step. I’ll even show you how to present your projections with easy-to-understand charts and tables.

Why Are SEO Projections Important?

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of creating an SEO projection, let’s talk about why they’re important.

1. They Build Trust

Whether you’re working with clients or an in-house team, SEO projections help build trust. They show that you’ve done your homework and have a clear plan for how your strategy will deliver results. Instead of saying, “Trust me, SEO works,” you can confidently present data-backed estimates.

2. They Set Realistic Expectations

SEO doesn’t work overnight, and it’s important to set realistic expectations from the start. Projections help prevent overpromising and underdelivering. They ensure that everyone understands what’s achievable within a specific timeframe.

3. They Provide a Benchmark

Projections act as a benchmark for measuring your progress. Let’s say you projected an increase in organic traffic of 20% over 6 months. By tracking your actual performance against this benchmark, you can see if you’re on track, ahead, or falling behind.

Step 1: Analyze Your Current SEO Performance

Before you can create a projection, you need to understand where you’re starting from. This involves analyzing your website’s current SEO performance. Here’s how to do it:

Analyze Organic Traffic

Use tools like Google Analytics or Google Search Console to analyze your current organic traffic. Focus on:

• Total organic sessions per month
• Top-performing pages (which pages bring the most traffic)
• Trends over the past 6-12 months (e.g., seasonal fluctuations)

For example, let’s say your website currently receives 10,000 organic visits per month. If traffic has been flat for the past year, your projections will need to account for that baseline.

Tip: Look beyond raw traffic numbers. Analyze the quality of traffic by checking bounce rates, time on site, and conversion rates.

Identify Your Current Keyword Rankings

Next, look at the keywords your website ranks for. Use tools like Ahrefs, SEMrush, or Google Search Console to find:

• Keywords you rank for in the top 10 positions
• Keywords ranking on pages 2 or 3 (positions 11–30) that have potential for growth
• Search volume for each keyword

For example, you might find that your website ranks #12 for a keyword with 5,000 monthly searches. With some optimization, you could move that keyword to the first page and capture significantly more traffic.

Assess Domain Authority

Your website’s authority plays a big role in its ability to rank. Tools like Moz or Ahrefs can help you measure your Domain Authority (DA) or Domain Rating (DR). If your DA is low compared to competitors, your projections might need to be more conservative.

Step 2: Set Clear SEO Goals

SEO projections are only useful if they’re tied to clear goals. Ask yourself:

• What’s the primary objective? Are you trying to increase traffic, generate leads, or boost revenue?
• How much growth do you want? For example, do you want to increase organic traffic by 50% in 12 months?
• What keywords are you targeting? Are you focused on ranking for specific high-value keywords?

Let’s say your goal is to grow organic traffic by 50% in the next 12 months. That means if you currently get 10,000 organic visits per month, your target is 15,000 monthly visits by the end of the year.

Step 3: Estimate Traffic Growth Using CTR and Keywords

This is where the magic happens. To estimate traffic growth, we need to look at:

1. The keywords you’re targeting.
2. The search volume for those keywords.
3. The click-through rate (CTR) based on your ranking position.

Understand Click-Through Rates (CTR)

When someone searches for a keyword on Google, only a percentage of searchers will click on your result. This percentage is known as the click-through rate (CTR).

Here’s an average CTR breakdown by position: