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If you’ve ever tried to pitch SEO to a client or your boss, you’ve probably heard this question:
“How do we know this will work?”
It’s a valid question. SEO takes time. It’s not like paid ads where you can start seeing results overnight. With SEO, you’re playing a long-term game. But just because SEO is a slow process doesn’t mean it’s unpredictable. That’s where SEO projections come in.
SEO projections allow you to estimate how much traffic, leads, or revenue you can generate from your SEO efforts over a specific timeframe. And while they’re never 100% accurate, they help set realistic expectations, convince stakeholders, and give you a roadmap for success.
In this guide, we’ll break down everything you need to know about SEO projections. We’ll cover what they are, why they matter, and how to create one step by step. I’ll even show you how to present your projections with easy-to-understand charts and tables.
Why Are SEO Projections Important?
Before we get into the nitty-gritty of creating an SEO projection, let’s talk about why they’re important.
1. They Build Trust
Whether you’re working with clients or an in-house team, SEO projections help build trust. They show that you’ve done your homework and have a clear plan for how your strategy will deliver results. Instead of saying, “Trust me, SEO works,” you can confidently present data-backed estimates.
2. They Set Realistic Expectations
SEO doesn’t work overnight, and it’s important to set realistic expectations from the start. Projections help prevent overpromising and underdelivering. They ensure that everyone understands what’s achievable within a specific timeframe.
3. They Provide a Benchmark
Projections act as a benchmark for measuring your progress. Let’s say you projected an increase in organic traffic of 20% over 6 months. By tracking your actual performance against this benchmark, you can see if you’re on track, ahead, or falling behind.
Step 1: Analyze Your Current SEO Performance
Before you can create a projection, you need to understand where you’re starting from. This involves analyzing your website’s current SEO performance. Here’s how to do it:
Analyze Organic Traffic
Use tools like Google Analytics or Google Search Console to analyze your current organic traffic. Focus on:
- Total organic sessions per month
- Top-performing pages (which pages bring the most traffic)
- Trends over the past 6-12 months (e.g., seasonal fluctuations)
For example, let’s say your website currently receives 10,000 organic visits per month. If traffic has been flat for the past year, your projections will need to account for that baseline.
Tip: Look beyond raw traffic numbers. Analyze the quality of traffic by checking bounce rates, time on site, and conversion rates.
Identify Your Current Keyword Rankings
Next, look at the keywords your website ranks for. Use tools like Ahrefs, SEMrush, or Google Search Console to find:
- Keywords you rank for in the top 10 positions
- Keywords ranking on pages 2 or 3 (positions 11–30) that have potential for growth
- Search volume for each keyword
For example, you might find that your website ranks #12 for a keyword with 5,000 monthly searches. With some optimization, you could move that keyword to the first page and capture significantly more traffic.
Assess Domain Authority
Your website’s authority plays a big role in its ability to rank. Tools like Moz or Ahrefs can help you measure your Domain Authority (DA) or Domain Rating (DR). If your DA is low compared to competitors, your projections might need to be more conservative.
Step 2: Set Clear SEO Goals
SEO projections are only useful if they’re tied to clear goals. Ask yourself:
- What’s the primary objective? Are you trying to increase traffic, generate leads, or boost revenue?
- How much growth do you want? For example, do you want to increase organic traffic by 50% in 12 months?
- What keywords are you targeting? Are you focused on ranking for specific high-value keywords?
Let’s say your goal is to grow organic traffic by 50% in the next 12 months. That means if you currently get 10,000 organic visits per month, your target is 15,000 monthly visits by the end of the year.
Step 3: Estimate Traffic Growth Using CTR and Keywords
This is where the magic happens. To estimate traffic growth, we need to look at:
- The keywords you’re targeting.
- The search volume for those keywords.
- The click-through rate (CTR) based on your ranking position.
Understand Click-Through Rates (CTR)
When someone searches for a keyword on Google, only a percentage of searchers will click on your result. This percentage is known as the click-through rate (CTR).
Here’s an average CTR breakdown by position:
Position
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6-10
CTR (%)
28.5%
15.7%
11.0%
8.0%
7.2%
3-5%
If a keyword has 10,000 monthly searches and you rank #1, you can expect about 2,850 clicks/month (28.5% of 10,000).
Calculate Traffic Potential
Now, let’s calculate traffic growth for a specific keyword.
Example:
- Keyword: “Best running shoes”
- Monthly search volume: 5,000
- Current ranking: #10 (CTR = 3%)
- Target ranking: #2 (CTR = 15.7%)
Step 1: Calculate current traffic:
5,000 × 3% = 150 visits/month
Step 2: Calculate projected traffic:
5,000 × 15.7% = 785 visits/month
Step 3: Estimate growth:
785 – 150 = 635 additional visits per month
Repeat this process for all your target keywords, then add up the total traffic potential.
Step 4: Account for Content Creation and Optimization
Traffic growth doesn’t just happen- it requires effort. Your projections should account for:
- Optimizing existing content
- Creating new content
Optimizing Existing Content
Pages already ranking on page 2 or 3 are low-hanging fruit. By optimizing them, you can quickly improve rankings. This might involve:
- Adding more in-depth content
- Updating keywords
- Improving internal linking
- Enhancing meta titles and descriptions
Creating New Content
The new content allows you to target additional keywords. For example, if you publish five new blog posts per month targeting high-volume keywords, each post can contribute to your overall traffic growth.
Step 5: Factor in Conversion Rates
Traffic is great, but conversions pay the bills. Your projection should also estimate how many leads or sales you’ll generate.
Calculate the Current Conversion Rate
Look at your current traffic-to-lead conversion rate. For example:
- If you get 10,000 visits/month and generate 500 leads, your conversion rate is 5%.
Project Future Conversions
Once you estimate future traffic, multiply it by your conversion rate. For example:
- Projected traffic: 20,000 visits/month
- Conversion rate: 5%
- Projected leads: 20,000 × 5% = 1,000 leads/month
Step 6: Create a Visual Projection
Numbers are great, but charts and tables make your projections much easier to understand.
Example Table of Projections
Month
Month 1
Month 3
Month 6
Month 12
Current Traffic
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
Projected Traffic
10,000
12,000
15,000
20,000
Traffic Growth
500
2,000
5,000
10,000
Conversions (5%)
525
600
750
1,000
Step 7: Account for External Factors
Finally, remember that projections are estimates, not guarantees. External factors like competition, Google algorithm updates, or market trends can impact your results. To make your projections more realistic, include a margin of error (e.g., ±10-20%).
Wrapping It Up
SEO projections may not be perfect, but they’re a powerful tool for setting expectations, building trust, and creating a roadmap for success. By analyzing your current performance, setting clear goals, and estimating traffic growth, you can create data-driven projections that will guide your SEO strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
2. Should we include branded keywords in my SEO projections?
Yes, but separate them from non-branded keywords. Branded keywords often have higher conversion rates because they target users already familiar with your brand. However, they don’t reflect the growth potential of your SEO efforts. Use non-branded keywords to measure the impact of new rankings and traffic growth while tracking branded keywords for overall performance.
3. How do we factor in competitor growth or changes in SEO strategy?
To factor in competitor growth, monitor their keyword rankings, content activity, and backlink acquisition using tools like Ahrefs or SEMrush. If competitors are aggressively targeting the same keywords, adjust your projections to anticipate slower growth or higher competition. Conversely, if competitors reduce their SEO efforts, you may achieve faster rankings.
4. How can we estimate the ROI of an SEO projection?
To estimate ROI, calculate the potential revenue from projected traffic. Use this formula:
Projected Revenue = Projected Traffic × Conversion Rate × Average Order Value (AOV)
Then, compare projected revenue to your SEO investment. For example, if your SEO campaign costs $10,000 and you project $30,000 in revenue, your ROI is 200%.
5. How do we adjust projections for algorithm updates?
Algorithm updates are unpredictable but can significantly impact rankings. To mitigate risks, diversify your SEO efforts by targeting a mix of keywords (low, medium, and high competition) and focusing on high-quality content. Include a margin of error (e.g., ±10-20%) in your projections to account for potential traffic fluctuations caused by updates.
